{ "schemaVersion": 1, "moduleId": "chip-supply", "generatedAt": "2026-08-12T00:00:00Z", "evidenceState": { "claimId": "chip-supply/claim/evidence-state", "lastSourceCheckAt": "2026-08-21", "maturity": { "level": "preliminary", "label": "TIDLIG", "rationale": "Kompatible front-end-serier finnes, mens HBM, avansert pakking og utstyrsledd fortsatt mangler åpne serier i samme kontrakt." }, "cadence": "monthly", "compatibleObservationCount": 1, "compatibleObservationLabel": "observert punkt i avansert 300 mm-serie; tre kildeprognoser vises separat", "trend": { "status": "limited", "label": "KILDEBANE, IKKE LEVERANSER", "rationale": "300 mm-punktene er en kompatibel SEMI-serie, men framtidspunktene er prognoser og andre waferbaser holdes separat." }, "measurementGaps": [ { "label": "HBM og avansert pakking", "claimId": "chip-supply/claim/hbm-gap" }, { "label": "litografi- og utstyrskapasitet", "claimId": "chip-supply/claim/equipment-gap" } ] }, "snapshot": { "schemaVersion": 1, "moduleId": "chip-supply", "title": "Advanced Chip Supply", "eyebrow": "SKALERINGSINNSATS / FORSYNING", "asOf": "2025-12-31", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-12", "generatedAt": "2026-08-12T00:00:00Z", "sourceIds": [ "semi-fab-forecast-2025", "semi-advanced-capacity-outlook-2025", "tsmc-annual-report-2025", "sia-supply-chain-resilience-2025" ], "status": "sparse", "evidenceState": { "claimId": "chip-supply/claim/evidence-state", "lastSourceCheckAt": "2026-08-21", "maturity": { "level": "preliminary", "label": "TIDLIG", "rationale": "Kompatible front-end-serier finnes, mens HBM, avansert pakking og utstyrsledd fortsatt mangler åpne serier i samme kontrakt." }, "cadence": "monthly", "compatibleObservationCount": 1, "compatibleObservationLabel": "observert punkt i avansert 300 mm-serie; tre kildeprognoser vises separat", "trend": { "status": "limited", "label": "KILDEBANE, IKKE LEVERANSER", "rationale": "300 mm-punktene er en kompatibel SEMI-serie, men framtidspunktene er prognoser og andre waferbaser holdes 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"label": "Advanced semiconductor capacity", "value": "1.4 million 300 mm wafers per month", "sourceId": "semi-advanced-capacity-outlook-2025", "sourceLocator": "Advanced capacity outlook, 2028 forecast", "canonical": { "value": 1400000, "unit": "300mm-wafers/month" } }, { "id": "chip-supply/fact/semi/two-nm-2025", "observedAt": "2025-12-31", "classification": "forecast", "label": "2 nm and below capacity", "value": "less than 200,000 300 mm wafers per month", "sourceId": "semi-advanced-capacity-outlook-2025", "sourceLocator": "2 nm and below outlook, 2025 bound" }, { "id": "chip-supply/fact/semi/two-nm-2028", "observedAt": "2028-12-31", "classification": "forecast", "label": "2 nm and below capacity", "value": "more than 500,000 300 mm wafers per month", "sourceId": "semi-advanced-capacity-outlook-2025", "sourceLocator": "2 nm and below outlook, 2028 bound" }, { "id": "chip-supply/fact/tsmc/managed-capacity-2025", "observedAt": "2025-12-31", "classification": "observation", "label": 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"sourceLocator": "Module coverage audit; current public series describes fab capacity, not equipment throughput" } ] }, "measurements": { "schemaVersion": 1, "moduleId": "chip-supply", "measurements": [ { "id": "chip-supply/semi/advanced-node-2025", "factIds": [ "chip-supply/fact/semi/advanced-node-2025" ], "observedAt": "2025-12-31", "classification": "forecast", "label": "Avanserte noder (≤7 nm), 2025", "value": "2,2 M 200 mm-eq./mnd.", "detail": "SEMI-prognose på eksplisitt 200 mm-ekvivalent basis.", "canonical": { "value": 2200000, "unit": "200mm-equivalent-wafers/month" } }, { "id": "chip-supply/semi/advanced-300mm-2024", "factIds": [ "chip-supply/fact/semi/advanced-300mm-2024" ], "observedAt": "2024-12-31", "classification": "observation", "label": "Avansert 300 mm-kapasitet, 2024", "value": "850k/mnd.", "detail": "Separat SEMI-serie i 300 mm-wafere.", "canonical": { "value": 850000, "unit": "300mm-wafers/month" } }, { "id": "chip-supply/semi/advanced-300mm-2025", "factIds": [ 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"chip-supply/fact/sia/us-share-2032" ], "observedAt": "2032-12-31", "classification": "forecast", "label": "USA-andel av global fab-kapasitet", "value": "10 % → 14 %", "detail": "SIA/BCG-prognose." }, { "id": "chip-supply/hbm-packaging/coverage", "factIds": [ "chip-supply/fact/hbm/coverage-gap" ], "observedAt": "2026-08-12", "classification": "gap", "label": "HBM + avansert pakking", "value": "ikke kvantifisert", "detail": "Bevisst målegap." }, { "id": "chip-supply/equipment/coverage", "factIds": [ "chip-supply/fact/equipment/coverage-gap" ], "observedAt": "2026-08-22", "classification": "gap", "label": "Litografi- og utstyrskapasitet", "value": "ikke kvantifisert", "detail": "Ingen kompatibel offentlig gjennomstrømningsserie er opptatt i modulen." } ] }, "claims": { "schemaVersion": 1, "moduleId": "chip-supply", "generatedAt": "2026-08-13T09:38:37.551Z", "claims": [ { "id": "chip-supply/claim/advanced-node-forecast", "claimType": "derivation", "statement": "SEMI prognostiserte 2,2 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"methodologyPaths": [ "data/tracker/chip-supply/METHODOLOGY.md" ], "calculation": null, "limitations": [ "Målegap betyr ikke fravær av kapasitet eller at trinnet nødvendigvis er flaskehalsen." ], "approvedAt": "2026-08-13T09:38:37.551Z" }, { "id": "chip-supply/claim/unit-basis", "claimType": "method", "statement": "Modulens 200 mm-ekvivalenter, 300 mm-wafere, 12-tommers årlig kapasitet og geografiske andeler holdes som separate mål.", "asOf": "2026-08-12", "reviewState": "reviewed", "sourceIds": [ "semi-fab-forecast-2025", "semi-advanced-capacity-outlook-2025", "tsmc-annual-report-2025", "sia-supply-chain-resilience-2025" ], "measurementIds": [ "chip-supply/semi/advanced-node-2025", "chip-supply/semi/advanced-300mm-path", "chip-supply/tsmc/managed-capacity-2025", "chip-supply/sia/us-share-2032" ], "factIds": [ "chip-supply/fact/semi/advanced-node-2025", "chip-supply/fact/semi/advanced-300mm-2025", "chip-supply/fact/tsmc/managed-capacity-2025", "chip-supply/fact/sia/us-share-2032" ], 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"id": "chip-supply/claim/evidence-state", "claimType": "method", "statement": "Chip Supply har ett kompatibelt observert punkt i den avanserte 300 mm-serien. Tre øvrige punkter er kildeprognoser og kan leses som en SEMI-kildebane, ikke som observerte leveranser; HBM, pakking og utstyr forblir separate målegap.", "asOf": "2026-08-21", "reviewState": "reviewed", "sourceIds": [ "semi-fab-forecast-2025", "semi-advanced-capacity-outlook-2025", "tsmc-annual-report-2025", "sia-supply-chain-resilience-2025" ], "measurementIds": [ "chip-supply/semi/advanced-300mm-2024", "chip-supply/semi/advanced-300mm-2025", "chip-supply/semi/advanced-300mm-2026", "chip-supply/semi/advanced-300mm-2028" ], "factIds": [], "lineageSetIds": [], "methodologyPaths": [ "data/tracker/chip-supply/METHODOLOGY.md" ], "calculation": null, "limitations": [ "Tre prognosepunkter vises separat fra det ene observerte punktet.", "Ulike wafer-, HBM-, pakke- og utstyrsmål holdes eksplisitt separate." ], "approvedAt": "2026-08-22T17:16:21.000Z" } ] }, "drilldowns": { "schemaVersion": 1, "moduleId": "chip-supply", "views": [ { "schemaVersion": 1, "id": "stages", "moduleId": "chip-supply", "title": "Forsyningstrinn og måleblindsoner", "shortTitle": "Brikkeforsyning", "description": "Holder inkompatible waferbaser adskilt og viser hvilke deler av AI-forsyningskjeden som faktisk har offentlige kapasitetssignaler.", "decisionQuestion": "Skalerer hele AI-brikkekjeden, eller bare de delene vi kan se?", "decisionUse": "Bruk visningen til å skille dokumentert front-end-vekst fra ubelagte antakelser om minne, pakking og faktisk leverbar AI-kapasitet.", "asOf": "2026-08-12", "sourceIds": [ "semi-fab-forecast-2025", "semi-advanced-capacity-outlook-2025", "tsmc-annual-report-2025", "sia-supply-chain-resilience-2025" ], "headline": { "label": "Avansert 300 mm-kapasitet, 2028", "value": "1,4 M/mnd.", "detail": "Dette er front-end-kapasitet i en SEMI-prognose, ikke ferdige AI-akseleratorer.", "classification": "forecast", "claimId": "chip-supply/claim/advanced-300mm-path" }, "visualization": { "id": "chip-compatible-trends", "type": "chip-compatible-trends", "eyebrow": "SEMICONDUCTOR BOTTLENECK STACK / KOMPATIBLE SERIER", "title": "Front-end skalerer; resten av flaskehalsstakken er ujevnt målt", "description": "Stakken skiller logic, HBM, pakking, utstyr og geografi. Grafen viser bare den kompatible 300 mm-serien; øvrige ledd holdes separat.", "measurementIds": [ "chip-supply/semi/advanced-300mm-2024", "chip-supply/semi/advanced-300mm-2025", "chip-supply/semi/advanced-300mm-2026", "chip-supply/semi/advanced-300mm-2028", "chip-supply/semi/two-nm-path", "chip-supply/semi/advanced-node-2025", "chip-supply/tsmc/managed-capacity-2025", "chip-supply/sia/us-share-2032", "chip-supply/hbm-packaging/coverage", "chip-supply/equipment/coverage" ], "claimIds": [ "chip-supply/claim/advanced-300mm-path", "chip-supply/claim/two-nm-path", "chip-supply/claim/advanced-node-forecast", "chip-supply/claim/tsmc-capacity", "chip-supply/claim/us-share-forecast", "chip-supply/claim/hbm-gap", "chip-supply/claim/equipment-gap", "chip-supply/claim/unit-basis" ], "unit": "tusen 300 mm-wafere per måned", "bottleneckStages": [ { "id": "logic", "label": "Logic / front-end", "state": "signal", "value": "850k observert i 2024", "detail": "Kompatibel 300 mm-serie; senere punkter er prognoser.", "measurementId": "chip-supply/semi/advanced-300mm-2024", "claimId": "chip-supply/claim/advanced-300mm-path" }, { "id": "hbm", "label": "HBM", "state": "gap", "value": "ikke kvantifisert", "detail": "Ingen godkjent kompatibel offentlig serie.", "measurementId": "chip-supply/hbm-packaging/coverage", "claimId": "chip-supply/claim/hbm-gap" }, { "id": "packaging", "label": "Avansert pakking", "state": "gap", "value": "ikke kvantifisert", "detail": "Deler HBM-gapet; kan ikke rangeres mot front-end.", "measurementId": "chip-supply/hbm-packaging/coverage", "claimId": "chip-supply/claim/hbm-gap" }, { "id": "equipment", "label": "Litografi / utstyr", "state": "gap", "value": "ikke kvantifisert", "detail": "Ingen kompatibel gjennomstrømningsserie er opptatt.", "measurementId": "chip-supply/equipment/coverage", "claimId": "chip-supply/claim/equipment-gap" }, { "id": "geography", "label": "Geografi", "state": "forecast", "value": "USA 10 → 14 %", "detail": "Geografisk scenario, ikke direkte AI-chip-output.", "measurementId": "chip-supply/sia/us-share-2032", "claimId": "chip-supply/claim/us-share-forecast" } ], "series": [ { "id": "advanced-300mm", "label": "Avanserte noder", "kind": "advanced", "points": [ { "date": "2024-12-31", "value": 850, "displayValue": "850k", "classification": "observation", "measurementId": "chip-supply/semi/advanced-300mm-2024", "claimId": "chip-supply/claim/advanced-300mm-path" }, { "date": "2025-12-31", "value": 982, "displayValue": "982k", "classification": "forecast", "measurementId": "chip-supply/semi/advanced-300mm-2025", "claimId": "chip-supply/claim/advanced-300mm-path" }, { "date": "2026-12-31", "value": 1160, "displayValue": "1,16M", "classification": "forecast", "measurementId": "chip-supply/semi/advanced-300mm-2026", "claimId": "chip-supply/claim/advanced-300mm-path" }, { "date": "2028-12-31", "value": 1400, "displayValue": "1,4M", "classification": "forecast", "measurementId": "chip-supply/semi/advanced-300mm-2028", "claimId": "chip-supply/claim/advanced-300mm-path" } ] }, { "id": "two-nm", "label": "2 nm og under", "kind": "leading-edge", "points": [ { "date": "2025-12-31", "value": 200, "displayValue": "<200k", "classification": "forecast", "qualifier": "under", "measurementId": "chip-supply/semi/two-nm-path", "claimId": "chip-supply/claim/two-nm-path" }, { "date": "2028-12-31", "value": 500, "displayValue": ">500k", "classification": "forecast", "qualifier": "over", "measurementId": "chip-supply/semi/two-nm-path", "claimId": "chip-supply/claim/two-nm-path" } ] } ], "separateSignals": [ { "id": "advanced-node-broad", "label": "BRED AVANSERT KAPASITET", "value": "2,2 M 200mm-eq/mnd.", "detail": "Annen waferbasis; ikke sammenlignbar med grafen.", "measurementId": "chip-supply/semi/advanced-node-2025", "claimId": "chip-supply/claim/advanced-node-forecast" }, { "id": "tsmc-total", "label": "TSMC TOTAL", "value": ">17 M 12in-eq/år", "detail": "Foretakstotal; isolerer ikke AI eller ledende noder.", "measurementId": "chip-supply/tsmc/managed-capacity-2025", "claimId": "chip-supply/claim/tsmc-capacity" }, { "id": "us-share", "label": "USA-ANDEL 2022 → 2032", "value": "10 → 14 %", "detail": "Geografisk prognose; ikke direkte AI-output.", "measurementId": "chip-supply/sia/us-share-2032", "claimId": "chip-supply/claim/us-share-forecast" } ], "measurementGap": { "label": "HBM + avansert pakking", "detail": "Ingen godkjent, kompatibel offentlig serie ennå.", "measurementId": "chip-supply/hbm-packaging/coverage", "claimId": "chip-supply/claim/hbm-gap" } }, "sections": [ { "id": "broad-front-end", "label": "FRONT-END", "question": "Vokser avansert fab-kapasitet?", "conclusion": "To SEMI-utgivelser viser høy vekst, men bruker ulike waferbaser og skal ikke summeres.", "status": "signal", "measurementIds": [ "chip-supply/semi/advanced-node-2025", "chip-supply/semi/advanced-300mm-path" ], "claimIds": [ "chip-supply/claim/advanced-node-forecast", "chip-supply/claim/advanced-300mm-path", "chip-supply/claim/unit-basis" ] }, { "id": "leading-edge", "label": "LEDENDE NODER", "question": "Hvor raskt skalerer 2 nm og under?", "conclusion": "Kildebanen går fra under 200k til over 500k 300 mm-wafere per måned mellom 2025 og 2028.", "status": "signal", "measurementIds": [ "chip-supply/semi/two-nm-path" ], "claimIds": [ "chip-supply/claim/two-nm-path" ] }, { "id": "company-scale", "label": "FORETAK", "question": "Hva sier én produsents totale kapasitet?", "conclusion": "TSMC rapporterer stor samlet kapasitet, men tallet isolerer verken AI, ledende noder eller pakking.", "status": "constraint", "measurementIds": [ "chip-supply/tsmc/managed-capacity-2025" ], "claimIds": [ "chip-supply/claim/tsmc-capacity" ] }, { "id": "geography", "label": "GEOGRAFI", "question": "Flytter produksjonen seg?", "conclusion": "SIA/BCG forventer økt USA-andel, men andelen sier ikke noe direkte om AI-chip-output.", "status": "signal", "measurementIds": [ "chip-supply/sia/us-share-2032" ], "claimIds": [ "chip-supply/claim/us-share-forecast" ] }, { "id": "back-end-gap", "label": "MÅLEGAP", "question": "Kan hele kjeden rangeres?", "conclusion": "Nei. HBM, avansert pakking og kritisk utstyr mangler fortsatt godkjente kompatible offentlige serier.", "status": "gap", "measurementIds": [ "chip-supply/hbm-packaging/coverage", "chip-supply/equipment/coverage" ], "claimIds": [ "chip-supply/claim/hbm-gap", "chip-supply/claim/equipment-gap", "chip-supply/claim/stage-map" ] } ], "comparisons": [ { "id": "advanced-300mm-growth", "label": "AVANSERT 300 MM", "from": "982k/mnd.", "to": "1,4 M/mnd.", "change": "+42,6 %", "detail": "2025 til 2028; samme SEMI-serie og waferbasis.", "claimId": "chip-supply/claim/advanced-300mm-path" }, { "id": "two-nm-growth", "label": "2 NM OG UNDER", "from": "<200k/mnd.", "to": ">500k/mnd.", "change": ">2,5×", "detail": "Kildeoppgitte grenser, ikke presise punktestimater.", "claimId": "chip-supply/claim/two-nm-path" } ], "limitations": [ "Kapasitet er ikke output, og output er ikke tilgjengelig AI-regnekraft.", "Waferbasene er eksplisitte og holdes adskilt.", "Uten HBM-, pakke- og utstyrsgrunnlag kan modulen ikke hevde hvilken flaskehals som dominerer." ] } ] }, "sources": [ { "id": "semi-fab-forecast-2025", "title": "Eighteen New Semiconductor Fabs to Start Construction in 2025", "publisher": "SEMI", "sourceUrl": "https://www.semi.org/en/semi-press-release/eighteen-new-semiconductor-fabs-to-start-construction-in-2025-semi-reports", "documentationUrl": "https://www.semi.org/en/products-services/market-data/fab-forecast", "license": "Cited public press release; detailed dataset is commercial", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-12", "dataAsOf": "2025-12-31", "sha256": null, "localPath": null, "role": "industry-forecast", "notes": "Public forecast for advanced-node wafer capacity; no licensed granular data is copied into this repository." }, { "id": "semi-advanced-capacity-outlook-2025", "title": "SEMI Forecasts 69% Growth in Advanced Chipmaking Capacity Through 2028 Due to AI", "publisher": "SEMI", "sourceUrl": "https://www.semi.org/en/semi-press-release/semi-forecasts-69-percent-growth-in-advanced-chipmaking-capacity-through-2028-due-to-ai", "documentationUrl": "https://www.semi.org/en/products-services/market-data/300mm-fab-outlook", "license": "Cited public press release; detailed dataset is commercial", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-12", "publishedAt": "2025-06-25", "dataAsOf": "2025-06-25", "sha256": null, "localPath": null, "role": "industry-forecast", "notes": "300mm-only advanced-process outlook. It is not directly comparable to SEMI's separate 200mm-equivalent World Fab Forecast values." }, { "id": "tsmc-annual-report-2025", "title": "TSMC 2025 Annual Report", "publisher": "TSMC", "sourceUrl": "https://investor.tsmc.com/static/annualReports/2025/english/index.html", "documentationUrl": "https://investor.tsmc.com/static/annualReports/2025/english/index.html", "license": "Cited public corporate disclosure", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-12", "dataAsOf": "2025-12-31", "sha256": null, "localPath": null, "role": "corporate-disclosure", "notes": "Reports total managed wafer capacity and advanced-packaging development, but not a public AI-chip capacity series." }, { "id": "sia-supply-chain-resilience-2025", "title": "Emerging Resilience in the Semiconductor Supply Chain", "publisher": "Semiconductor Industry Association / Boston Consulting Group", "sourceUrl": "https://www.semiconductors.org/emerging-resilience-in-the-semiconductor-supply-chain/", "documentationUrl": "https://www.semiconductors.org/emerging-resilience-in-the-semiconductor-supply-chain/", "license": "Cited public report summary", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-12", "dataAsOf": "2032-12-31", "sha256": null, "localPath": null, "role": "industry-forecast", "notes": "US global-fab-share outlook; geographic capacity is not an AI output or access measure." } ] }