982k/month→1.4 M/month
+42.6%2025 to 2028; the same SEMI series and wafer basis.
DECISION VIEW / CHIP SUPPLY
Supply stages and measurement blind spots
Keeps incompatible wafer bases separate and shows which parts of the AI supply chain actually have public capacity signals.
Advanced chip production capacity
300 mm wafers / month · k = 1,0000k750k1,500k
2024202520262028
All capacity points 4
Dashed segments include source forecasts. Manufacturing capacity is not delivered AI chips. Source unit: thousand 300 mm wafers per month; displayed with k = 1,000 and M = 1,000,000 wafers.
Supply-chain evidence
Different scopes kept separateLogic / front-endSignal
850k observed in 2024. Compatible 300 mm series; later points are forecasts.
Evidence ↗Advanced packagingData gap
not quantified. Shares the HBM gap; it cannot be ranked against front-end capacity.
Evidence ↗Lithography / equipmentData gap
not quantified. No compatible throughput series has been admitted.
Evidence ↗Other source units & signals
BROAD ADVANCED CAPACITY · 2.2 M 200mm-eq/month
Different wafer basis; not comparable with the chart.
Evidence ↗TSMC TOTAL · >17 M 12in-eq/year
Company total; does not isolate AI or leading nodes.
Evidence ↗US SHARE 2022 → 2032 · 10 → 14 %
Geographical forecast; not direct AI output.
Evidence ↗HBM + advanced packaging: No approved, compatible public series yet.
Analysis summary Assessed 2026-08-12
FORECASTPUBLIC EVIDENCE STATUSEARLY
1.4 M/month
Advanced 300 mm capacity, 2028This is front-end capacity in a SEMI forecast, not finished AI accelerators.
Use this view to distinguish documented front-end growth from unsupported assumptions about memory, packaging and actually deliverable AI capacity.
Compatible front-end series exist, while HBM, advanced packaging and equipment stages still lack open series under the same contract.
Claim evidence · chip-supply/claim/evidence-state ↓- LATEST OBSERVATION
- 2025-12-31
- LAST SOURCE CHECK
- 2026-08-21
- CADENCE
- monthly
- COMPATIBLE OBSERVATIONS
- 1observed point in the advanced 300 mm series; three source forecasts are shown separately
- TREND STATUS
- SOURCE PATHWAY, NOT DELIVERIESThe 300 mm points form a compatible SEMI series, but future points are forecasts and other wafer bases are kept separate.
- MEASUREMENT GAP
- 2HBM and advanced packaginglithography and equipment capacity
<200k/month→>500k/month
>2.5×Source-stated bounds, not precise point estimates.
Is advanced fab capacity growing?
Two SEMI publications show strong growth, but use different wafer bases and must not be added together.
Advanced nodes (≤7 nm), 2025 · SEMI forecast on an explicit 200 mm-equivalent basis.
Advanced 300 mm pathway, 2025–2028 · Comparison within the same SEMI series and wafer basis.
How fast are 2 nm and below scaling?
The source pathway moves from below 200k to above 500k 300 mm wafers per month between 2025 and 2028.
2 nm and below, 2025–2028 · Source-stated bounds, not point estimates.
What does one manufacturer's total capacity tell us?
TSMC reports substantial total capacity, but the figure isolates neither AI, leading nodes nor packaging.
TSMC managed capacity, 2025 · Managed capacity across the entire company.
Is production shifting?
SIA/BCG expects an increased US share, but that share says nothing directly about AI chip output.
US share of global fab capacity · SIA/BCG forecast.
Can the entire chain be ranked?
No. HBM, advanced packaging and critical equipment still lack approved compatible public series.
HBM + advanced packaging · Explicit measurement gap.
Lithography and equipment capacity · No compatible public throughput series has been admitted to the module.
- Retrieved
- 2026-08-12
- Data
- 2025-12-31
- Licence
- Cited public press release; detailed dataset is commercial
Public forecast for advanced-node wafer capacity; no licensed granular data is copied into this repository.
Open original source ↗- Retrieved
- 2026-08-12
- Data
- 2025-06-25
- Licence
- Cited public press release; detailed dataset is commercial
300mm-only advanced-process outlook. It is not directly comparable to SEMI's separate 200mm-equivalent World Fab Forecast values.
Open original source ↗- Retrieved
- 2026-08-12
- Data
- 2025-12-31
- Licence
- Cited public corporate disclosure
Reports total managed wafer capacity and advanced-packaging development, but not a public AI-chip capacity series.
Open original source ↗- Retrieved
- 2026-08-12
- Data
- 2032-12-31
- Licence
- Cited public report summary
US global-fab-share outlook; geographic capacity is not an AI output or access measure.
Open original source ↗VERIFIABLE EVIDENCE / 10 CLAIMSOpen evidence +
Claims, calculations, sources and known limitations for this view. Source data and dashboard interpretation are kept separate.
SEMI forecast 2.2 million 200 mm-equivalent wafers per month for nodes at 7 nm and below in 2025.
- A forecast, on a 200 mm-equivalent basis, and not AI-only.
chip-supply/claim/advanced-node-forecastThe SEMI series shows 850,000 advanced 300 mm wafers per month in 2024 and a forecast pathway through 982,000 in 2025 and 1.16 million in 2026 to 1.4 million in 2028.
SEMI: SEMI Forecasts 69% Growth in Advanced Chipmaking Capacity Through 2028 Due to AI ↗5 measurements4 source facts
- A forecast of front-end capacity; it does not specify yield, chip mix or deliveries.
chip-supply/claim/advanced-300mm-pathSEMI states that capacity for 2 nm and below rises from below 200,000 wafers per month in 2025 to above 500,000 in 2028.
SEMI: SEMI Forecasts 69% Growth in Advanced Chipmaking Capacity Through 2028 Due to AI ↗1 measurement2 source facts
- Source-stated bounds, not point estimates; a forecast, not deliveries.
chip-supply/claim/two-nm-pathTSMC states that annual capacity at its managed fabs exceeded 17 million 12-inch wafer equivalents in 2025.
- Not advanced-node, AI or packaging capacity.
chip-supply/claim/tsmc-capacitySIA/BCG estimates that the US share of global fab capacity rises from 10% to 14% by 2032.
Semiconductor Industry Association / Boston Consulting Group: Emerging Resilience in the Semiconductor Supply Chain ↗1 measurement1 source facts
- A scenario with policy and investment assumptions; not AI output.
chip-supply/claim/us-share-forecastNo public, method-compatible series for HBM and advanced packaging capacity has yet been accepted into the module.
- A measurement gap does not mean capacity is absent or that the stage is necessarily the bottleneck.
chip-supply/claim/hbm-gapThe module's 200 mm equivalents, 300 mm wafers, 12-inch annual capacity and geographical shares are kept as separate measures.
SEMI: Eighteen New Semiconductor Fabs to Start Construction in 2025 ↗SEMI: SEMI Forecasts 69% Growth in Advanced Chipmaking Capacity Through 2028 Due to AI ↗TSMC: TSMC 2025 Annual Report ↗Semiconductor Industry Association / Boston Consulting Group: Emerging Resilience in the Semiconductor Supply Chain ↗4 measurements4 source facts
- No hidden area, yield or node conversion is used.
chip-supply/claim/unit-basisPublic sources show strong expansion of advanced front-end capacity and leading nodes, while the module cannot yet rank HBM or advanced packaging on the same measurement basis.
SEMI: Eighteen New Semiconductor Fabs to Start Construction in 2025 ↗SEMI: SEMI Forecasts 69% Growth in Advanced Chipmaking Capacity Through 2028 Due to AI ↗TSMC: TSMC 2025 Annual Report ↗4 measurements6 source facts
- This is an evidence map, not a complete supply model or bottleneck ranking.
chip-supply/claim/stage-mapThe module does not yet have a compatible public series for the throughput of lithography and other critical equipment.
SEMI: SEMI Forecasts 69% Growth in Advanced Chipmaking Capacity Through 2028 Due to AI ↗1 measurement1 source facts
- The coverage gap does not mean that equipment is the binding bottleneck.
chip-supply/claim/equipment-gapChip Supply has one compatible observed point in the advanced 300 mm series. Three other points are source forecasts and can be read as a SEMI source pathway, not as observed deliveries; HBM, packaging and equipment remain separate measurement gaps.
SEMI: Eighteen New Semiconductor Fabs to Start Construction in 2025 ↗SEMI: SEMI Forecasts 69% Growth in Advanced Chipmaking Capacity Through 2028 Due to AI ↗TSMC: TSMC 2025 Annual Report ↗Semiconductor Industry Association / Boston Consulting Group: Emerging Resilience in the Semiconductor Supply Chain ↗4 measurements
- Three forecast points are shown separately from the single observed point.
- Different wafer, HBM, packaging and equipment measures are explicitly kept separate.
chip-supply/claim/evidence-stateTRACEABLE FACT LOG / 11 SOURCE FACTSOpen log +
chip-supply/fact/semi/advanced-node-20257 nm-and-below capacity on a 200 mm-equivalent basis
SEMI · SEMI 4Q 2024 Fab Forecast press release and wafer-basis footnotechip-supply/fact/semi/advanced-300mm-2024Advanced semiconductor capacity
SEMI · Advanced capacity outlook, 2024 baselinechip-supply/fact/semi/advanced-300mm-2025Advanced semiconductor capacity
SEMI · Advanced capacity outlook, 2025 forecastchip-supply/fact/semi/advanced-300mm-2026Advanced semiconductor capacity
SEMI · Advanced capacity outlook, 2026 forecastchip-supply/fact/semi/advanced-300mm-2028Advanced semiconductor capacity
SEMI · Advanced capacity outlook, 2028 forecastchip-supply/fact/semi/two-nm-20252 nm and below capacity
SEMI · 2 nm and below outlook, 2025 boundchip-supply/fact/semi/two-nm-20282 nm and below capacity
SEMI · 2 nm and below outlook, 2028 boundchip-supply/fact/tsmc/managed-capacity-2025TSMC managed manufacturing capacity
TSMC · 2025 annual reportchip-supply/fact/sia/us-share-2032US share of global fab capacity
Semiconductor Industry Association / Boston Consulting Group · Report findingschip-supply/fact/hbm/coverage-gapPublic HBM and advanced-packaging capacity series
TSMC · Module methodology; intentional non-derivationchip-supply/fact/equipment/coverage-gapCompatible semiconductor equipment capacity series
SEMI · Module coverage audit; current public series describes fab capacity, not equipment throughputINTERPRETATION LIMIT
Capacity is not output, and output is not available AI compute.
Wafer bases are explicit and kept separate.
Without evidence for HBM, packaging and equipment, the module cannot claim which bottleneck dominates.
MODULE STATUSSPARSE
Front-end capacity is scaling; HBM and advanced packaging remain measurement blind spots