Sources and traceability

The EU series sums positive H100e capacity at facilities in the EU's 27 member states included in Epoch AI's selected frontier data centre registry.

• The registry is not a complete inventory of all data centres or all AI capacity in the EU.
• The series uses physical location, while the main series use ownership.
• Non-frontier facilities use Epoch's capacity factor 1.5 and ±6 months for estimated operational dates (80% coverage); this is not the ownership curve's 5th–95th percentiles. Observation dates are not operational-date estimates.

31,834 H100e is the latest documented positive minimum at EU-located frontier facilities as of 2026-08-16, based on 1 facility in the archived registry.

• This is a documented minimum in a frontier registry, not an estimate of all AI compute in the EU.
• The series is location-based and cannot be subtracted from Epoch AI's ownership-based Other category.
• Future facility points are plans with uncertain dates and capacity, not observed measurements.

8 future individual facilities that establish a new estimated capacity frontier after 2026-09-08 are shown as separate planned points.

• Plans can change, and facilities are not added to ownership holdings because of the risk of double counting.

Compute has 16 compatible quarters in the global ownership-based series from 2022-03-31 to 2025-12-31. The trend is valid within this series; the EU minimum and facility plans use a different measurement basis and are excluded.

• Maturity describes the evidence contract, not the probability of a singularity.
• A new source edition may require compatibility review before extending the series.

The curve estimates cumulative AI accelerator ownership in the Epoch AI dataset; it does not measure actual use, access, physical location or effective model capacity.

• Coverage follows Epoch AI's ownership model and is not a complete inventory of all computing worldwide.

The ownership-based series aggregate Epoch AI's global ownership categories: US cloud comprises seven named companies, China combines official and estimated smuggled categories, and Other is the global Other category.

• Ownership categories do not indicate geographical location, access or state control.

The series' 5th and 95th percentiles sum the source groups' respective bounds as a transparent display approximation.

• The summed bounds are not a joint probabilistic confidence model.

The world series median at 2025-12-31 is 20,926,382 H100e, equivalent to 41.41 ZOPS of theoretical 8-bit peak performance.

The world series median increased by 208% from the same quarter a year earlier to 2025-12-31.

The seven named US-based cloud and model groups account for 75% of the world series' estimated ownership at 2025-12-31.

• US cloud is a company category, not a claim about physical location or state control.

Nominal accelerator power in the world series is 13.4 GW at 2025-12-31.

• This is nominal accelerator power, not actual electricity consumption or total data centre load.

The dashed curve mechanically extends the CAGR of the last eight complete observations quarter by quarter; it is not a forecast.

• The extension assumes an unchanged historical growth rate and does not model power, capital, supply or saturation.

AI 2027 places the superhuman-coder milestone in March 2027 and specifies 60 million H100e globally during the Agent-3 period beginning that month; this is 2.9× the latest observed world median, but is scenario context rather than a causal takeoff threshold.

• AI 2027 and Epoch AI use H100e as a comparison unit, but their normalisation methods are not documented as identical.
• The alignment of date and capacity provides context; it does not mean that 60M H100e triggers the milestone.

AI 2027 estimates 100 million globally available H100e at the end of 2027, 4.8× the latest observed world median in this tracker.

• This is an external forecast, not a Vardark measurement.
• AI 2027 and Epoch AI use H100e as a comparison unit, but their normalisation methods are not documented as identical.

Compute has 16 compatible quarters in the global ownership-based series from 2022-03-31 to 2025-12-31. The trend is valid within this series; the EU minimum and facility plans use a different measurement basis and are excluded.

• Maturity describes the evidence contract, not the probability of a singularity.
• A new source edition may require compatibility review before extending the series.

The US-cloud drilldown exposes every group-total and ownership point with a stable measurement ID in the form compute/us-cloud/total/<dato> or compute/us-cloud/<eier>/<dato>; each point retains lineage to the same time-versioned source observations summed by the chart.

• Drilldown IDs identify derived display points; they do not replace atomic source facts.
• Owner identity is not the same as physical location or actual access.

15,746,640 H100e is the aggregate median for seven time-versioned US-based owners at 2025-12-31; their share of the world series is 75%.

• The group describes ownership by company identity, not physical location or state control.
• The chip-type view comes from Epoch AI's separate chip-type table and may differ slightly from the ownership total due to source aggregation.

The EU series sums positive H100e capacity at facilities in the EU's 27 member states included in Epoch AI's selected frontier data centre registry.

• The registry is not a complete inventory of all data centres or all AI capacity in the EU.
• The series uses physical location, while the main series use ownership.
• Non-frontier facilities use Epoch's capacity factor 1.5 and ±6 months for estimated operational dates (80% coverage); this is not the ownership curve's 5th–95th percentiles. Observation dates are not operational-date estimates.

The dashed curve mechanically extends the CAGR of the last eight complete observations quarter by quarter; it is not a forecast.

• The extension assumes an unchanged historical growth rate and does not model power, capital, supply or saturation.

8 future individual facilities that establish a new estimated capacity frontier after 2026-09-08 are shown as separate planned points.

• Plans can change, and facilities are not added to ownership holdings because of the risk of double counting.

H100e is a comparison model that normalises different AI chips against the Nvidia H100's theoretical maximum dense 8-bit performance; it is not a count of H100 cards.

• Memory, networking, software, precision, utilisation and workload can make actual performance higher or lower than this comparison.

The world series median at 2025-12-31 is 20,926,382 H100e, equivalent to 41.41 ZOPS of theoretical 8-bit peak performance.

31,834 H100e is the latest documented positive minimum at EU-located frontier facilities as of 2026-08-16, based on 1 facility in the archived registry.

• This is a documented minimum in a frontier registry, not an estimate of all AI compute in the EU.
• The series is location-based and cannot be subtracted from Epoch AI's ownership-based Other category.
• Future facility points are plans with uncertain dates and capacity, not observed measurements.

AI 2027 places the superhuman-coder milestone in March 2027 and specifies 60 million H100e globally during the Agent-3 period beginning that month; this is 2.9× the latest observed world median, but is scenario context rather than a causal takeoff threshold.

• AI 2027 and Epoch AI use H100e as a comparison unit, but their normalisation methods are not documented as identical.
• The alignment of date and capacity provides context; it does not mean that 60M H100e triggers the milestone.

AI 2027 estimates 100 million globally available H100e at the end of 2027, 4.8× the latest observed world median in this tracker.

• This is an external forecast, not a Vardark measurement.
• AI 2027 and Epoch AI use H100e as a comparison unit, but their normalisation methods are not documented as identical.

Compute has 16 compatible quarters in the global ownership-based series from 2022-03-31 to 2025-12-31. The trend is valid within this series; the EU minimum and facility plans use a different measurement basis and are excluded.

• Maturity describes the evidence contract, not the probability of a singularity.
• A new source edition may require compatibility review before extending the series.

AI 2027 places the superhuman-coder milestone in March 2027 and specifies 60 million H100e globally during the Agent-3 period beginning that month; this is 2.9× the latest observed world median, but is scenario context rather than a causal takeoff threshold.

• AI 2027 and Epoch AI use H100e as a comparison unit, but their normalisation methods are not documented as identical.
• The alignment of date and capacity provides context; it does not mean that 60M H100e triggers the milestone.

AI 2027 estimates 100 million globally available H100e at the end of 2027, 4.8× the latest observed world median in this tracker.

• This is an external forecast, not a Vardark measurement.
• AI 2027 and Epoch AI use H100e as a comparison unit, but their normalisation methods are not documented as identical.

AI 2027 places the superhuman-coder milestone in March 2027 and specifies 60 million H100e globally during the Agent-3 period beginning that month; this is 2.9× the latest observed world median, but is scenario context rather than a causal takeoff threshold.

• AI 2027 and Epoch AI use H100e as a comparison unit, but their normalisation methods are not documented as identical.
• The alignment of date and capacity provides context; it does not mean that 60M H100e triggers the milestone.

The EU series sums positive H100e capacity at facilities in the EU's 27 member states included in Epoch AI's selected frontier data centre registry.

• The registry is not a complete inventory of all data centres or all AI capacity in the EU.
• The series uses physical location, while the main series use ownership.
• Non-frontier facilities use Epoch's capacity factor 1.5 and ±6 months for estimated operational dates (80% coverage); this is not the ownership curve's 5th–95th percentiles. Observation dates are not operational-date estimates.

31,834 H100e is the latest documented positive minimum at EU-located frontier facilities as of 2026-08-16, based on 1 facility in the archived registry.

• This is a documented minimum in a frontier registry, not an estimate of all AI compute in the EU.
• The series is location-based and cannot be subtracted from Epoch AI's ownership-based Other category.
• Future facility points are plans with uncertain dates and capacity, not observed measurements.