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OBSERVATORY / SYSTEM RELATIONSHIPS

Transition Map

System relationships · linked evidence · explicit unknowns

Relationship definitions
RELATIONSHIP

An edge states only its declared type. A line never silently means causality.

CONFIDENCE

Confidence is semantic and method-bound; line width never encodes synthetic precision.

TIME

VARDARK KNEW BY uses the M4 knowledge cursor and never backdates a relationship before review.

UNITS

Node signals retain their owning module unit and are never normalized across the map.

AI TRANSITION MAP / NO GLOBAL SCORE

System, constraints and gaps

Node signals preserve their module units. Edge width carries no analytical meaning. Select a node to trace its immediate system context or select a relationship to inspect its evidence.

LAYOUT IS PRESENTATION / NOT A NUMERIC AXIS
DERIVED RELATIONSHIPHIGH / METHOD-BOUND
Compute capacity→Deployable compute

The accepted Compute × Energy method derives nominal power and theoretical compute-per-MW from the published ownership series.

LIMITATIONS
  • Nameplate board power is not measured wall-plug consumption.
  • The result is a hardware proxy, not useful work per joule.
CLAIM → EVIDENCE
2025-12-31 · KNOWN 2026-08-17T23:23:00.134Zcompute-energy/claim/scale-versus-efficiency

From 2022-Q1 to 2025-Q4, estimated global compute holdings increased approximately 333.8 times, nominal accelerator power 168.7 times and theoretical compute per nominal MW 1.98 times.

epoch-ai-chip-owners-2026-08-10-570f980dc551 · epoch-ai-h100e-methodology-2026-08-112025-12-31 · KNOWN 2026-08-17T23:23:00.134Zcompute-energy/claim/nameplate-energy-envelope

The world series' nominal accelerator power in 2025-Q4 is equivalent to 117.0 TWh per year if nameplate power is sustained continuously at PUE 1.0.

epoch-ai-chip-owners-2026-08-10-570f980dc5512025-12-31 · KNOWN 2026-08-17T23:23:00.134Zcompute-energy/claim/model-boundary

Compute per nominal watt is a theoretical hardware proxy. Useful AI work per kWh requires workload, precision, system and wall-power measurements that this module does not yet contain.

epoch-ai-chip-owners-2026-08-10-570f980dc551 · epoch-ai-h100e-methodology-2026-08-11
METHODdata/tracker/compute-energy/METHODOLOGY.md
FIRST-CLASS UNKNOWNS

Unquantified relationships

Dashed relationships are not weak scores. They are explicit statements that the Observatory cannot yet quantify the bridge.