415 TWh→485 TWh
+16.9%2024 to 2025; calculated from IEA observations.
DECISION VIEW / ENERGY
Demand and grid risk
Distinguishes measured global TWh, source-versioned 2030 pathways and the risk of grid delays to planned data centre capacity.
Data-centre electricity demand
TWh / year · worldwide05001,000
20242030
20%
of planned capacity may be delayed by grid risk
ForecastSeparate grid-delay risk estimate; not subtracted from electricity demand.
All data centres, not AI alone. Only 2 historical observations; dashed lines show source scenarios. No source-compatible regional queue series.
Analysis summary Assessed 2025-12-31
OBSERVATIONPUBLIC EVIDENCE STATUSEARLY
485 TWh
Updated global data centre loadThe observed 2025 value is the starting point; 2030 is a scenario.
Use this view to examine the pace of power demand and whether grid access could become the physical bottleneck.
Two compatible global observations and versioned IEA scenarios; regional grid queues and the AI share have not yet been normalised.
Claim evidence · energy/claim/evidence-state ↓- LATEST OBSERVATION
- 2025-12-31
- LAST SOURCE CHECK
- 2026-08-21
- CADENCE
- monthly
- COMPATIBLE OBSERVATIONS
- 2global annual observations for all data centres
- TREND STATUS
- LIMITED2024 and 2025 are comparable, but two points do not establish a robust long-term trend. The 2030 points are scenarios.
- MEASUREMENT GAP
- 2regional grid queues and connectionsAI-only electricity use
485 TWh→950 TWh
1.96×2025 observation to 2030 scenario; approximately 14.4% CAGR.
What has actually happened?
The IEA's global estimate increased from 415 TWh in 2024 to 485 TWh in 2025.
Global data centre electricity in 2024 · Direct IEA estimate.
Global data centre electricity in 2025 · Updated IEA estimate.
How large is the central pathway?
The updated IEA pathway reaches 950 TWh in 2030, 1.96× the 2025 level.
Scaling 2025–2030 · Reversible calculation from canonical TWh/year.
IEA 2026 update: central pathway 2030 · Updated source scenario.
Is the scenario changing?
The central 2030 pathway is almost unchanged between IEA editions: approximately 945 to 950 TWh.
IEA 2025 edition: Base Case 2030 · Source scenario.
IEA 2026 update: central pathway 2030 · Updated source scenario.
Can planned capacity connect to the grid?
The IEA estimates that grid risks could delay around 20% of planned global data centre capacity towards 2030.
Planned capacity exposed to grid delays · Source analysis.
Where are the queues forming?
The module does not yet have a regional registry for power, queue time or connection status.
- Retrieved
- 2026-08-10
- Data
- 2024-12-31
- Licence
- CC BY 4.0
Used for energy context, not to derive the H100-equivalent compute series.
Open original source ↗- Retrieved
- 2026-08-12
- Data
- 2025-12-31
- Licence
- CC BY 4.0
Updated IEA observation for 2025 and central 2030 projection. Total data-centre electricity, not AI-only demand.
Open original source ↗VERIFIABLE EVIDENCE / 9 CLAIMSOpen evidence +
Claims, calculations, sources and known limitations for this view. Source data and dashboard interpretation are kept separate.
The IEA estimates global data centre consumption at 415 TWh in 2024.
- Not an AI-only measurement.
energy/claim/global-demand-2024The IEA update estimates global data centre consumption at 485 TWh in 2025.
- Not an AI-only measurement.
energy/claim/global-demand-2025The global IEA estimate increased by 16.9% from 2024 to 2025.
CALCULATION
(485 TWh / 415 TWh - 1) × 100 = 16.9%International Energy Agency: Energy and AI ↗International Energy Agency: Key Questions on Energy and AI ↗2 measurements2 source facts
- A comparison across editions of IEA estimates, not meter readings.
energy/claim/observed-growth-2025The IEA's updated central pathway has approximately 950 TWh of data centre consumption in 2030.
- Scenario, not observation.
energy/claim/global-demand-2030-updatedThe IEA's updated central pathway reaches 1.96 times the 2025 level in 2030, equivalent to approximately 14.4% compound annual growth.
CALCULATION
950 / 485 = 1.9588; (950 / 485)^(1/5) - 1 = 14.4%- A mechanical description of the IEA scenario, not an independent forecast.
energy/claim/demand-trajectoryThe IEA's central 2030 estimate moved from approximately 945 TWh in the 2025 report to approximately 950 TWh in the 2026 update.
CALCULATION
950 - 945 = 5 TWh; approximate source valuesInternational Energy Agency: Energy and AI ↗International Energy Agency: Key Questions on Energy and AI ↗2 measurements2 source facts
- Both source figures are rounded, and methods may differ between editions.
energy/claim/scenario-revisionThe IEA assesses that grid risks could delay approximately one fifth of planned global data centre capacity towards 2030.
- Model-based risk assessment; not a project registry.
energy/claim/grid-delay-riskThe module does not yet have a source-compatible regional series for grid queues, available power or connection status.
- A measurement gap does not mean regional data does not exist; it has not yet been normalised in this module.
energy/claim/regional-grid-gapEnergy has two compatible global annual observations for total data centre electricity, 2024 and 2025. They are comparable, but two points do not establish a robust long-term trend, and the 2030 points remain source scenarios.
International Energy Agency: Energy and AI ↗International Energy Agency: Key Questions on Energy and AI ↗2 measurements
- The series covers all data centre electricity and is not an AI-only series.
- Regional grid queues have not yet been measured under the same contract.
energy/claim/evidence-stateTRACEABLE FACT LOG / 5 SOURCE FACTSOpen log +
energy/fact/iea/2024-data-centersGlobal data-centre electricity use
International Energy Agency · Executive summary: 2024 global consumptionenergy/fact/iea/2025-data-centersUpdated global data-centre electricity use
International Energy Agency · Executive summary: updated 2025 consumptionenergy/fact/iea/2030-base-case-2025-edition2025 report Base Case for 2030
International Energy Agency · Executive summary: 2030 Base Caseenergy/fact/iea/2030-central-2026-update2026 update central projection for 2030
International Energy Agency · Executive summary: updated 2030 projectionenergy/fact/iea/grid-delay-riskPlanned capacity at risk of grid connection delay
International Energy Agency · AI and energy security: location-specific grid-risk analysisINTERPRETATION LIMIT
Global TWh says little about local power and queue time.
IEA figures include more than AI.
The scenario is not a promise of physically connected capacity.
MODULE STATUSSPARSE
485 TWh observed in 2025; nearly doubling along the IEA's central pathway towards 2030